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The prospect that the incoming Trump administration could scale back the federal role in civil rights enforcement in education has many rights advocates deeply worried after nearly eight years of high-profile attention to such issues under President Barack Obama.

The Obama administration has emphasized such concerns as addressing racial disparities in school discipline and special education; ensuring that transgender students may use the restrooms and locker rooms corresponding to their gender identity; and combating sexual violence in higher education. Those have been among the top priorities of the U.S. Department of Education鈥檚 office for civil rights.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Department of Justice, the educational opportunities section of the civil rights division has reinvigorated desegregation enforcement at a time when many schools have become more racially isolated, and it has pressed cases on alleged religious discrimination, sex bias, and discrimination against English-language learners.

Shortly after President-elect Donald Trump鈥檚 victory, however, Gerard Robinson, a member of the Trump presidential-transition team responsible for K-12 education鈥攕peaking for himself and not on behalf of any organization鈥攕uggested to Education Week that the new administration could shift the Education Department鈥檚 office for civil rights back to its less activist stance under Presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush. He did not give details. But Robinson also stressed that he expects the OCR to ensure that students鈥� rights are not 鈥渢rampled on.鈥�

So far, some leading civil rights organizations are not optimistic.

鈥淭he work of this [Obama] administration has been incredibly important鈥� on civil rights issues in education, said Liz King, the director of education policy for the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, in Washington. 鈥淚 think there is a lot of concern in the civil rights community鈥� about what direction the new administration will take, she added.

Daniel J. Losen, the director of the Center for Civil Rights Remedies, part of the Civil Rights Project at the University of California, Los Angeles, said, 鈥淲hat鈥檚 scary to everybody who cares about the civil rights of children is that the worst of what [Trump] might do is horrific.鈥�

鈥淭he question in my mind is, how bad will it be?鈥� he added.

But Roger Clegg, a former Justice Department civil rights official under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, said that 鈥渙n discrimination, the law will be enforced. 鈥� I鈥檓 confident that will happen here.鈥�

Many Unknowns

He also said in areas such as racial preferences and 鈥渄isparate impact,鈥� when there is a statistical difference in outcomes based on race, the Trump administration is likely to oppose positions taken by the Obama administration.

Much is unknown about how the incoming administration will proceed on civil rights in education, added Clegg, the president and general counsel of the Center for Equal Opportunity, in Falls Church, Va.

鈥淲e know that Hillary Clinton would have been quite liberal in this area,鈥� said Clegg. 鈥淲e鈥檙e dealing with at least the possibility of more conservative policies in these areas, but it depends on who [Trump] nominates to run these different agencies.鈥�

U.S. Secretary of Education John B. King Jr., speaking to reporters Nov. 17, said he believed his successor as secretary needed to 鈥渉ave a strong commitment to the historical role of the department in protecting students鈥� civil rights.鈥� On Nov. 23, Trump named Betsy DeVos, a Michigan philanthropist and major national advocate of school choice, including tuition vouchers, as his nominee for education secretary.

One early flash point during the Trump administration could be the issue of transgender rights.

Under Obama, the OCR has taken the view that under Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, which prohibits discrimination 鈥渂ased on sex鈥� in federally funded educational programs, schools and colleges must allow transgender students to use the restrooms or locker rooms that correspond to their gender identity.

A broad guidance document on the issue from the Education and Justice departments is being challenged in a lawsuit by 21 states, which contend that the interpretation is incorrect and that such guidance may not be imposed on the states without going through a notice-and-comment rulemaking procedure, which the May 16 鈥淒ear Colleague鈥� letter did not.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court has accepted a case that arose before the 鈥淒ear Colleague鈥� letter was issued that involves a Virginia transgender student who was denied the use of the boys鈥� restroom in his high school. A federal appeals court ruled for the student by giving deference to an informal interpretation of Title IX provided by an OCR official.

Some observers have suggested that the Trump administration could quickly reverse course by withdrawing such guidance. Last spring, candidate Trump gave mixed signals on the issue. He said on one occasion that he thought transgender people should be able to 鈥渦se the bathroom that they feel is appropriate.鈥� He later said it should be a matter for states to decide.

Two former U.S. solicitors general鈥攖he executive branch鈥檚 chief lawyer before the Supreme Court鈥攚ere asked at a forum after the election about a new administration鈥檚 flexibility to withdraw guidance, and they were asked specifically about the transgender guidance.

Donald W. Verrilli Jr., who served as President Obama鈥檚 solicitor general from 2011 until this past spring, said the transgender guidance 鈥渨as not done by notice-and-comment rulemaking. So it鈥檚 not a formal rule. It鈥檚 an informal letter interpreting existing law. So my observation about that is that it is easy for a new administration to change that.鈥�

Theodore B. Olson, who was solicitor general under President George W. Bush, agreed at the Nov. 17 forum in Washington, sponsored by Bloomberg Next, that a new administration could change something like the transgender guidance 鈥渞elatively easily.鈥�

鈥淲hen people talk about the first 100 days, or the first day, somebody鈥檚 going to have a list of things鈥� a new administration could change, Olson said. The question is, he said, would it want to?

But he also noted that such changes in position can be tricky when they are part of a case pending before the Supreme Court.

鈥淭he Supreme Court expects you in [the solicitor general鈥檚] office to be calling it very straight鈥攏ot being capricious, not changing positions just because a new person or new president comes in,鈥� Olson said.

If the Obama administration decides to take a position in the transgender case before the Supreme Court, Gloucester County School Board v. G.G.鈥攁 normal step, given that its interpretation of a federal law is central to the case鈥攊ts friend-of-the-court brief would be due just days before Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20.

Justice Department鈥檚 Role

Meanwhile, the president-elect鈥檚 Nov. 18 announcement of his selection of Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., to be attorney general was greeted with dismay in the civil rights community. Critics pointed to Sessions鈥� positions against gay marriage and for strict immigration enforcement, for example, and to accusations of racism that helped derail his 1986 nomination by President Ronald Reagan to a federal judgeship.

Eric H. Holder Jr., Obama鈥檚 first attorney general, was credited with reinvigorating the Justice Department鈥檚 civil rights division, which maintains a key role in education issues, especially in ongoing desegregation cases.

Anurima Bhargava, who headed the division鈥檚 educational opportunities section for most of Obama鈥檚 tenure, offered a measured view of the impact of a new administration.

鈥淚n my section alone, there are [career staff members] who have been through multiple transitions in administrations,鈥� she said in an interview. 鈥淭hey continue to do the work through those transitions. There are always dedicated people who stay and hold down the fort.鈥�

The educational opportunities section presses ahead on longtime desegregation cases, many of which go back years or even decades.

鈥淐ertainly, as we know, schools are more segregated today than they have been in decades,鈥� said Bhargava, who is now a fellow at the Open Society Foundations, in New York City, and the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, at Harvard University鈥檚 John F. Kennedy School of Government.

Keeping an 鈥極pen Mind鈥�

Republican civil rights activists stressed their view that presidential administrations of their party have enforced civil rights laws in education, and they expressed hope that the Trump administration would do so.

鈥淲e should give his incoming administration an open mind and hold out the possibility that there will be improvements in civil rights enforcement,鈥� said Kenneth L. Marcus, who was effectively the acting head of the OCR for about a year under President George W. Bush.

Marcus, now the president and general counsel of the Louis B. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law, in Washington, said that when the OCR under his acting leadership dealt with schools and colleges, 鈥渕y sense was that most administrators understood that they needed to respond quite promptly and seriously, regardless of the [presidential] administration.鈥�

鈥淚n my experience, the overwhelming majority of cases OCR handles will be addressed largely the same, regardless of whether it is a liberal or a conservative administration,鈥� Marcus said. 鈥淭he differences will come in the relatively high-profile cases. But then, those are the cases that matter.鈥�

Losen, of the Civil Rights Project at UCLA, was not prepared to cut the Trump administration any slack.

鈥淚 worry about creating this image of likely normalcy,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f you look to the Reagan and [both] Bush administrations, there was significant scaling-back鈥� of civil rights enforcement in education, he said. 鈥淯ntil we see some clear indications of what [Trump] is really going to do, we鈥檙e justified in fearing the worst.鈥�