Two days ago, in discussing Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and his feud with U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, I noted that Republican governors have been if they鈥檝e signaled interest in a 2016 presidential run.
Then on June 18, Jindal held a press conference to announce that Louisiana will dump the common core as well as the test from the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers, and much of the reaction focused on his reputed ambitions for the White House.
See some of Jindal鈥檚 June 18 remarks in the video below:
As I discuss in a , state Superintendent John White and the state board say mean absolutely nothing, since they retain authority over standards and tests and have followed all relevant laws. Not only did the state education department say it is , but officials from PARCC said late on June 18 that it鈥檚 going to continue its work with Louisiana, against the governor鈥檚 wishes.
So it鈥檚 possible that if Jindal really wants to bring common core to a grinding halt, he鈥檒l have to file a lawsuit against the state board and White for not following his executive orders. If Jindal thinks he鈥檚 done enough to satisfy his ambitions regarding the standards, maybe that lawsuit won鈥檛 happen. But it could create an odd scene if Jindal made a big, official show against the common core, only to subsequently twiddle his thumbs as state education leaders ignored him.
The 2016 Tractor Beam
But let鈥檚 shift to the other major storyline from what鈥檚 happening in Louisiana: the 2016 presidential campaign. Anyone listening to Jindal鈥檚 press conference heard him blame the federal government over and over for using the common core to intrude on education, thereby poisoning the standards. It was the biggest theme of his remarks.
Jindal connected, rhetorically, the Affordable Care Act, the U.S. Department of Justice鈥檚 , and then the common core, which he admitted he once supported. All three, he said, represent the Obama administration鈥檚 lust for dominion over what should be state decisions.
鈥淓nough is enough,鈥� Jindal declared.
State board president in responding to the governor, saying that Jindal thinks attacks on the common core will help his chances in a 2016 presidential campaign.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a way that these folks can identify themselves as belonging to the more conservative wing of the Republican Party,鈥� said the American Enterprise Institute鈥檚 Mike McShane, who has tracked GOP governors鈥� positions on the common core, referring to governors willing to attack the common core.
The longer Jindal鈥檚 quest for a legal wrench to throw into common core and PARCC in Louisiana goes on, the longer he can continue to hammer away at the standards in public. That wealth of soundbites could be useful in a Republican presidential primary. And Jindal鈥檚 recent spat through the media with U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan over the common core not only won鈥檛 change any minds, according to the New America Foundation鈥檚 Anne Hyslop, but politically, the exchange could even help bolster Jindal鈥檚 conservative bona fides.
And as it is 2016 politics, nothing Arne says-or doesn鈥檛 say-will change Jindal鈥檚 tune on CCSS
鈥� Anne Hyslop (@afhyslop)
But is it that simple? Has common core really been caught in the tractor beam of , to use a phrase by Professor Jeffrey Henig of Teachers鈥� College at Columbia University, to the point where it will be a notable factor in 2016?
I mentioned four GOP governors who are, at this point, common-core opponents and also notable presidential candidates: Indiana鈥檚 Mike Pence, Texas鈥� Rick Perry, and Wisconsin鈥檚 Scott Walker, as well as Jindal. If we use , that鈥檚 a third of all the Republican governors opposed to the standards. By contrast, McShane lists 14 GOP chief executives in favor of the standards鈥攁rguably, only one, New Jersey鈥檚 Chris Christie, is a clear-cut presidential contender. (Ohio鈥檚 John Kasich might be in the race but he鈥檚 far less talked-about than Christie.)
So much for ratios. But let鈥檚 dig deeper into the divisions and differences among Republican governors.
Pegs, Poseurs, and New Coats of Paint
鈥erry hasn鈥檛 had to backpedal from the common core because Texas never had the standards, and in 2013, he signed a bill into law . That gives him a relatively clear path, if the rhetorical opportunity arises, to bring Jindal (who at one time liked the common core) down a peg.
鈥alker has said with something better, and his staff . But the bill failed to get traction among lawmakers in Wisconsin, where state Superintendent Tony Evers, like White, backs the standards.
鈥hen there鈥檚 Pence. Earlier this year, his state and repealed its 2010 adoption of the common core, with Pence鈥檚 support. Now, opponents of the standards in Indiana and elsewhere will argue that the state essentially put a new coat of paint on the common core and falsely declared that it had new standards. But will these claims that Pence is a sort of anti-common core poseur really rise to the level where they affect a) how Pence is perceived on education, and b) the dynamics of a presidential election? That could be a tough call to make.
鈥t鈥檚 worth comparing Jindal to Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley, a Republican who has . Like Jindal, he鈥檚 the governor of a state where the K-12 superintendent, Tommy Bice, as well as the state board of education, support the common core. Bentley, Bice, and the state board have tussled over the standards.
But unlike Jindal, Bentley hasn鈥檛 declared a full-on war by seeking to force the state to drop the standards solely through the executive branch. (Members of the legislature have tried to kill common core, but they鈥檝e failed.) And Bentley is not generally thought of as a contender for the White House.
Among Jindal, Pence, Perry, and Walker, only Perry was a relatively clear common-core opponent before the standards became politically problematic for some people.
Public Defenders
What about a somewhat different question鈥攚hich Republican governors are both potential presidential candidates and relatively outspoken about their support for the common core? After all, it鈥檚 one thing not to be actively opposed to the common core, and another thing to repeatedly speak out in favor of it, especially with the 36 gubernatorial elections this year.
Once again, Christie falls into this category鈥攁 group called Conservatives for Higher Standards posted a in Las Vegas last August, in which Christie said New Jersey would stick with the standards, and that governors, including many Republicans, were leading the charge on that issue. In fact, he said at the time that many Republicans were blindly opposing the common core just because the Obama administration liked it and wanted to engage in 鈥渨arfare鈥� with the president on every issue.
In many states, Christie鈥檚 main point is correct. Republican governors who support the common core and aren鈥檛 afraid to say so publicly include North Carolina鈥檚 Pat McCrory, Michigan鈥檚 Rick Snyder, and Tennessee鈥檚 Bill Haslam. And all three of those governors have faced significant common-core opposition in their states (McCrory is still dealing with it). But unlike Christie, none of those three chief executives seem to be planning campaign stops in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2016.
In the end, the landscape seems to say that governors not running for president feel far more comfortable supporting the common core, or at least not actively undermining it, than the half-dozen or so governors who have 2016 on their minds.
Unique Position
Finally, there鈥檚 someone in his own category: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the head of the Foundation for Excellence in Education. Arguably, he鈥檚 a than any sitting governor. He will likely have to answer questions about his support for the standards if he seeks the GOP presidential nomination. Unless, that is, he executes an about-face worthy of a West Point cadet on military parade and drops his backing for the common core. If that happens, he鈥檒l face a different, perhaps equally-difficult line of questions about a dreaded policy flip-flop. Here鈥檚 his foundation on the common core from just over three months ago:
will help students learn more and go further. Find out more here
鈥� Excellence in Ed (@ExcelinEd)
So where does that leave us for 2016? On the one hand, it鈥檚 unclear how common core will be regarded by the public and their political leaders. And it鈥檚 unclear whether common core will be a major, 鈥済eneral-purpose鈥� political issue roughly a year from now, when presidential campaigns will get going in earnest. What if common core gets fully up to speed and the controversies surrounding it run out of gas? What if all the states still using the common core stick with it, despite the furor in Louisiana and a few other states?
On the other hand, there鈥檚 a decent chance that Republicans will take control of the U.S. Senate in 2014, and they might increase their margin over Democrats in the House of Representatives. If so, the new power dynamic in Washington could increase the influence of the voting blocs and groups who are determined to roll back the standards heading into 2016. And what if criticism of the common core reaches a new peak in the summer, when new (and presumably lower) test scores aligned to the common core are released across country just as the 2016 race heats up?