The 2024 election is finally upon us, and more than 150 million people will be voting for a slew of federal, state, and local officials. If you鈥檝e been paying attention this fall, you鈥檝e heard a lot of emphatic claims about what鈥檚 at stake. While we await the election results鈥攁 process that could take days or weeks for some races鈥攍et鈥檚 try to address some frequently asked questions about what the results in the presidential election might mean for the next four years.
#1: If Donald Trump wins, is the Department of Education likely to be abolished?
. Trump can鈥檛 abolish the department via executive action. It would require legislation. And, unless Republicans abolish the filibuster, they鈥檇 need the House majority and 60 votes in the Senate to make such a move. There鈥檚 some speculation that Republicans might follow Vice President Harris鈥� lead and try to abolish the filibuster but, with moderate Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine), along with a few other fence-sitters, it鈥檚 hard to see a slim GOP Senate majority mustering even 50 votes on abolishing the department. Meanwhile, plenty of influential right-wingers would rather see a Trump administration . There are also proposals to reorganize the department by , but this is also unlikely to occur鈥攐r, if it does, it鈥檚 unlikely to have much impact beyond the Beltway.
#2: If Kamala Harris wins, will there be a big federal pay raise for teachers?
It鈥檚 not likely. While Harris has been about her policy agenda this time around, during her 2019 campaign, one of her signature initiatives included proposing for teacher pay. This is one of the handful of commitments she hasn鈥檛 . Moreover, her after Biden stepped down this summer was at the American Federation of Teachers鈥� annual convention. Given all that, there鈥檚 been some hopeful chatter about a big federal pay raise for teachers. But the odds are stacked against such a raise actually happening: Democrats to capture the Senate, the House is , there鈥檚 a long wish list of competing spending priorities, and Washington is straining under massive deficits.
#3: Would a Trump administration gut Title I or turn it into a voucher program?
No. There was a House vote on a proposal to voucherize Title I last year. . Even if one imagines that somehow a Trump White House could pressure the House so effectively that it doubled that vote, he鈥檇 still need to get at least 50 votes plus Vice President Vance in the Senate. Veteran GOP nose-counters will tell you it鈥檚 tough to locate 45 Senate votes for voucherizing Title I, even if the Republicans outpace projections and wind up with 53 or 54 seats in the Senate. And given that Trump has spent the campaign saying he鈥檒l lower taxes and mocking Project 2025-style calls for spending cuts (promising instead to add , , , and more), there鈥檚 no evidence he鈥檇 be ready to mount a high-profile, long-shot fight to cut funding for low-income kids.
#4: ESSER dollars have run out. What election outcome is most likely to deliver a new infusion of funding?
New ESSER-like dollars are very unlikely, though I can imagine one edge-case scenario in which they鈥檙e possible. Here鈥檚 the deal: While some analyses have some modest benefits from the spending, Republicans are deeply skeptical that the money was spent wisely. Meanwhile, Democrats have a slew of competing priorities. Now, maybe a Harris administration could deliver some funding if Democrats beat the odds to both capture the House and hold the Senate, and then squeeze a massive Build Back Better-style spending bill through the Senate via budget reconciliation (or after abolishing the filibuster). But this is really not how you鈥檇 bet. A Democratic sweep is a long shot, while inflation and snowballing deficits have made a crucial handful of centrist Democrats leery of huge spending bills.
#5: Would a Trump administration pass major federal school choice legislation?
It depends on how you define 鈥渕ajor鈥� but the short answer is: maybe. As noted, even if Republicans retain their razor-thin House majority and avoid defections to pass a bill, they鈥檇 struggle to get a voucher program through the Senate. While there鈥檚 room for bipartisan action on charter schools, the GOP has had little success attracting Democratic votes for private school choice proposals. Given all that, any kind of federal voucher program is very improbable. Far more likely is a tax-credit program (presumably along the lines of the ) folded into major tax legislation and passed via reconciliation.
#6: It sounds like you鈥檙e saying the stakes are lower than one might expect. Are there any places where the results will matter a lot?
Absolutely. The reason it sounds like the stakes are low is that we鈥檝e been talking about measures that require legislative action, and a closely divided Congress means it鈥檒l be tough to get big things done. That said, there鈥檚 a lot that an administration can do through executive action. So, the outcome of the presidential election will matter enormously in areas such as Title IX, the shape of civil rights enforcement, student-loan 鈥渇orgiveness,鈥� and the federal response to campus protests. It鈥檚 worth noting, though, that the Supreme Court鈥檚 ruling in promises to of any administration to invent new powers or radically redefine old rules. So, the swing may be a bit less dramatic than in the past.
On the whole, it鈥檚 fair to say that the educational stakes are likely to prove far more modest than the partisans or overwrought pundits would have you imagine. If you鈥檙e a hard-core Harris aficionado or a Trump enthusiast, that may be disappointing. For the rest of us, it鈥檚 semi-reassuring. Heck, as I noted for EdWeek back in 2016, 鈥淔or most of my adult life, I鈥檝e been left cold by the candidates for president鈥攚hich means I鈥檝e always been comforted by the understanding that, regardless of whoever wins, they鈥檇 have only a very limited impact on our lives.鈥� Once again, that鈥檚 truer than the media coverage might lead you to believe.
