Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis鈥 strategy to win over voters in the 2024 presidential election through vows that he will root out 鈥渨oke ideology鈥 in schools has so far failed to materialize into any sort of real competition for former President Donald Trump.
In a late July , 17 percent of voters said they鈥檇 be most likely to vote for DeSantis if the Republican presidential primary election were held then while a majority, 54 percent, said they would vote for Trump. Other recent polls from , and show Trump holding similar leads.
It鈥檚 a less than optimal outlook for DeSantis as the Republican primary contenders head into their first official debate on Wednesday, Aug. 23.
In July, Politico reported that of his campaign staff, including two senior advisers, in an effort to get his presidential bid back on track. He replaced his campaign manager .
Meanwhile, the Florida governor has been embroiled in fights with the College Board over Advanced Placement Psychology and African American Studies courses and controversies after the Florida Department of Education released revised African American history standards that teach that 鈥渟ome slaves developed highly specialized trades from which they benefitted.鈥
DeSantis has tried to position himself as a champion of the conservative parents鈥 rights movement, aligning with influential groups like Moms for Liberty, a political group that originated in Florida and capitalized on parent outrage following the COVID-19 pandemic, but it appears it hasn鈥檛 been enough to make him a strong contender against Trump.
That might be because many of DeSantis鈥 policy positions are focused on what he鈥檚 against鈥擫GBTQ+ curriculum, inclusive bathroom and sports policies for transgender and nonbinary youth, and history classes that teach about white supremacy鈥檚 role in developing systemic racism鈥攔ather than what he stands for, said Todd Belt, a political science professor at George Washington University.
鈥淓lections are about the future. It鈥檚 not enough just to be against something,鈥 Belt said. 鈥淵ou have to be able to articulate a vision for what the future is.鈥
Education doesn鈥檛 win national elections
While education has always held a place in presidential elections, it鈥檚 never been a deciding factor. That鈥檚 largely because education is highly localized. Decisions about curriculum, classroom standards, and school policy are mostly made at the school board and state levels while the federal government鈥檚 role is limited; it provides only 7.6 percent of public school funding, .
As president, DeSantis wouldn鈥檛 be able to do as much with education as he鈥檚 done in Florida. He could try to pass incentives for states to expand school choice or pass policies that give parents more control over curriculum decisions鈥攎odeled after initiatives he鈥檚 championed as Florida鈥檚 governor鈥攂ut he would be largely limited in his power to influence education from the Oval Office.
鈥淓ducation is a problematic area for presidents to make any promises about because there is such little direct influence,鈥 Belt said. 鈥淎nd when you get involved, it can be a bit of a minefield.鈥
That being said, presidents have major influence over party policy.
If DeSantis succeeds in his presidential bid, his victory could push other conservative politicians to pursue the same parents鈥 rights and curriculum policies that DeSantis has passed in Florida, said Jon Valant, director of the Brown Center on Education Policy at the Brookings Institution.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know how much of what we鈥檙e seeing so far is a reflection of what people think about his education agenda, but I do think it鈥檚 going to be interpreted that way,鈥 Valant said. 鈥淚f DeSantis performs well, I think there will be a lot of Republicans around the country who think to themselves, 鈥榳ell, I can win using this kind of model.鈥欌
The presidential candidate has hinged much of his platform on parents鈥 rights rhetoric, criticizing schools for teaching 鈥渨oke ideology.鈥 He鈥檚 established a coalition called Mamas for DeSantis, which aims to 鈥減ut an end to the woke mob鈥檚 hostile takeover of the lives of parents, children, and families across the nation.鈥
DeSantis and other Republicans saw education as a path to win elections after Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin won his campaign in 2021 on a parents鈥 rights platform in a state that hadn鈥檛 elected a Republican governor in more than a decade.
At the time, it seemed as if that strategy would mobilize conservative parents upset following extended COVID-19 school closures and school diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. That has failed to materialize, however, in consistent wins for conservative politicians. In the 2022 midterm elections, the predicted 鈥渞ed wave鈥 of conservative wins didn鈥檛 become a reality and politicians who centered their campaigns on elevating parents鈥 rights and combatting critical race theory and gender ideology in schools failed to secure major wins.
Voters don鈥檛 appear to have warmed up to the idea, either, not even likely Republican presidential primary voters. In the New York Times/Siena College poll from late July, 25 percent of Republican voters likely to cast ballots in the primaries said they鈥檇 support 鈥渁 candidate who focuses on defeating radical 鈥榳oke鈥 ideology in our schools, media, and culture.鈥 Many more Republicans鈥64 percent鈥攕aid they鈥檇 vote for a candidate 鈥渨ho focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border.鈥
There鈥檚 also more to it than policy preferences.
鈥淭he magnetism of Trump for the GOP base overwhelms traditional policy issues that might otherwise attract votes,鈥 David Bloomfield, an education law professor at Brooklyn College and the City University of New York Graduate Center, said in an email. 鈥溾橝nti-woke鈥 [education] policies aren鈥檛 the catnip DeSantis believed.鈥
DeSantis鈥 next steps
While his aggressive stance on education might play a part in his lackluster polling, DeSantis鈥 biggest problem appears to be that voters have not lost their love for Trump, even as the former president faces four criminal indictments.
In the New York Times poll, 69 percent of the likely Republican voters said they鈥檇 describe Trump as a 鈥渟trong leader鈥 while 22 percent said the same of DeSantis, 54 percent described Trump as 鈥渇un鈥 while only 16 percent said the same of DeSantis, and 58 percent described Trump as 鈥渁ble to beat Joe Biden鈥 while only a third said the same of DeSantis.
If campaign strategy memos are any indication, the Florida governor will likely use the Republican presidential primary debate Wednesday night to try and combat some of those perceptions of him. But unless he鈥檚 able to provide a strong vision for the future, he won鈥檛 have much luck, Belt said.
鈥淗e really needs to use this upcoming debate and the next coming weeks to give people some idea of what he鈥檚 for and not just against,鈥 Belt said.
