For decades, lawmakers and advocates have tried and failed to create a sweeping, federal school choice program that allows families to use public resources to cover private school tuition or home-school expenses.
Now the policy鈥檚 fans鈥攁nd detractors鈥攕ee the political stars aligning.
Former President Donald Trump is set to ascend to the White House for a second time. His education secretary pick, Linda McMahon, a former pro-wrestling executive, who heads up the America First Policy Institute, a think tank that has been supportive of private school vouchers.
Republicans will control both chambers of Congress. And states across the country are embracing education savings accounts, tax credit scholarships, and other policies that harness taxpayer resources to give parents K-12 options beyond their local public school. In fact, at least 28 states now have some sort of private school choice program on the books, according to an Education Week analysis.
鈥淭he environment is completely changed,鈥� said Betsy DeVos, who served as U.S. secretary of education during Trump鈥檚 first term and has spent her career advocating for choice. 鈥淚 think more members of Congress and [their staff] are more informed about what education freedom really is, and what it means. Education freedom programs advanced in their own states, and they鈥檙e beginning to see the fruit of that.鈥�
Sasha Pudelski, a co-chair of the National Coalition for Public Education, a lobbying coalition that works to keep public funds in public schools, agrees that a shift has taken place since Trump鈥檚 first term, which saw only modest policy victories on private-school choice鈥攊ncluding a provision in the 2017 tax overhaul law that allowed families to use 529 college-savings accounts for K-12 private school tuition.
鈥淧rivate school vouchers have become more entrenched as a key Republican value,鈥� said Pudelski, who is also the director of advocacy for AASA, The School Superintendents Association. 鈥淚t feels different this time.鈥�
The proposal that appears most likely to make it over the finish line in a second Trump term: A new federal tax credit for individuals and companies that donate to organizations offering private school scholarships to students.
The program would offer scholarships to help families cover private school tuition, but also other possibilities including tutoring, Advanced Placement test fees, special education services, education technology, curriculum materials, and workforce training for high school students.
Private school vouchers have become more entrenched as a key Republican value. It feels different this time.
Earlier this year, a bill creating the program鈥攚hich would be financed at $5 billion a year for four years鈥�, which oversees taxation. It has more than 150 GOP co-sponsors in the House, representing more than half the Republicans in the chamber.
Similar legislation has also been where it is unlikely to win approval this year. Come January, an all-GOP Congress will give it new momentum, though both supporters and detractors agree that passage isn鈥檛 a sure thing.
鈥楾he environment is completely changed鈥� on school choice, says Betsy DeVos
Though private school choice has long been priority for many in the GOP, other Republicans鈥攑articularly those from rural areas鈥攈ave historically opposed it as diverting public funding from school districts in parts of the country where there isn鈥檛 a private school around for miles.
Meanwhile, Republican allies鈥攊ncluding the conservative Heritage Foundation鈥攈ave also questioned whether the federal government should take a major role in anything related to K-12 education, even if it鈥檚 in favor of a policy they support at the state level, such as private school choice.
That opposition helped doom a behind-the-scenes effort to include a similar federal tax credit scholarship program in Trump鈥檚 sweeping tax overhaul legislation in 2017, DeVos said in a recent, wide-ranging interview with Education Week.
鈥淭here, frankly, wasn鈥檛 enough support within the Republican caucuses then,鈥� she said, adding that the policy 鈥渃an actually be implemented through a federal tax credit, not creating any new federal bureaucracies or departments or agencies or anything.鈥�
Meanwhile, Pudelski and others are readying their opposition. They plan to point out that private schools can choose to turn away students鈥攊ncluding English learners and students in special education.
Choice supporters 鈥渁re better prepared this time,鈥� Pudelski acknowledged. 鈥淏ut we will keep hammering how vouchers don鈥檛 work for rural communities, how these programs provide a coupon for wealthy kids already attending [private] schools, and the accountability issues with allowing these programs to teach whatever they want and educate whoever they want.鈥�
How the latest private school choice proposal is designed to overcome traditional resistance
The tax credit scholarship legislation appears designed to avoid both the political and procedural pitfalls that have doomed previous choice efforts.
It is designed to be incorporated into a broader reconciliation package dealing with taxes and mandatory spending programs. That means it would only need a simple majority to pass in both chambers and would not be subject to a filibuster, which requires 60 senators to allow a bill to move forward. Republicans will hold 53 seats in the chamber come January.
Families who make less than 300 percent of the median income in their area of the country would be eligible for the scholarships. That would cover about 85 to 90 percent of students in each state, said John Schilling, a senior adviser for Invest in Education, a coalition backing the proposal.
Most early-generation private school choice programs鈥攊ncluding a voucher program for Washington-area families鈥攚ere aimed at students from low-income households. But the tax credit program is 鈥減urposefully designed to ensure that middle-class families can also participate,鈥� Schilling explained.
Schilling expects that the breadth of potential uses鈥攚hich go well beyond private school tuition鈥攚ill also help build support for the proposal, especially among rural lawmakers. In fact, the chief sponsor in the House, Rep. Adrian Smith, R-Neb., represents one of the least densely populated congressional districts in the country.
In the past, Schilling would go to meetings with some GOP members of Congress, and they would tell him, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 have a private school within 200 miles my district. Why should I vote for this?鈥� Schilling said. Allowing families to use the money for things like tutoring or online courses answers that question, he said.
Instead of having the federal government run the program鈥攁nd therefore adding to the bureaucracy that鈥檚 become anathema in many GOP policy circles鈥攖he money would be distributed by nonprofit scholarship-granting organizations. Individuals could contribute as much as 10 percent of their taxable income, while corporations could donate up to 5 percent. The model was pioneered in Arizona back in 1997.
Many of these nonprofits already exist in states. Schilling expects more will spring up in even the most remote parts of the country once the bill passes. Each state would receive at least $20 million a year. Beyond that, funds would be available on a first-come, first served basis.
Individual scholarship-granting organizations decide how much money to offer through the scholarships. And they could be combined with other choice programs. The more than two dozen states that already have private school choice programs鈥攚hether vouchers, education savings accounts, or tax-credit scholarships鈥攃ould opt to use the federal resources to enhance what they are already offering students, Schilling said.
Smith, the Nebraska Republican, has already been in talks with the Trump team about the legislation, he said.
鈥淲e know that families of sufficient means, they have choices,鈥� Smith said. 鈥淭his is about empowering families that don鈥檛 have the financial resources to access school choice. It鈥檚 about empowering families across America.鈥�
But Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, said voters sent a clear message on election day that they didn鈥檛 want to see public funds diverted to private schools.
Voters in three states, including Kentucky and Nebraska, where Republicans won on statewide and national races, spurned efforts to expand or codify private school choice, she noted.
鈥淭hey rejected private school vouchers whenever they were on the ballot,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hey want their public schools to be strengthened.鈥�
There are other potential vehicles for private school choice legislation
The tax credit scholarship program likely won鈥檛 be the only piece of choice legislation introduced early next year, when a new, GOP Congress is in place.
Republicans are still likely to push on long-standing ideas, like making Title I grants portable, meaning they could follow children to the school of their choice. That proposal has been in the mix for years and resurfaced as part of Project 2025, an expansive conservative policy document developed by the Heritage Foundation.
In fact, it was approved by the House nearly a decade ago as part of an early draft of the legislation that eventually became the Every Student Succeeds Act, but did not become part of the ultimate bipartisan compromise.
Republicans may also seek to expand the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship program, which offers vouchers enabling low-income students in Washington to attend private schools.
They may also push for education savings accounts, or ESAs, for groups of students over which the federal government has special responsibility, such as those who live on American Indian reservations and those whose families serve in the military.
And there could be a new effort to broaden the use of 529 plans yet again, to support homeschooling expenses.
