The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization have voiced concern over a new strain of COVID-19, dubbed Omicron, that is now found in the United States and 23 other countries. Yet the playbook for school and district leaders to prevent a new wave of the pandemic is unlikely to change.
鈥淲e need to use the tools we already have to prevent transmission and save lives from Delta. And if we do that, we will also prevent transmission and save lives from Omicron,鈥� said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director-general, in a briefing on the new variant Wednesday. 鈥淏ut if countries and individuals don鈥檛 do what they need to do to stop transmission of [the Delta variant], they wouldn鈥檛 stop Omicron either,鈥� he said, adding that 鈥渁 toxic mix of low vaccine coverage and very low testing is a recipe for breeding and amplifying variants.鈥�
While the first U.S. cases of Omicron were identified on Wednesday, the highly contagious Delta variant still accounts for virtually all new coronavirus cases in the United States, with infection rates in the first half of November, after more than two months of declining cases among young people.
What is Omicron?
Formally known as B.1.1.529, the Omicron strain of SARS-COV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19) was first identified following a spike in coronavirus cases in South Africa, and now has caused cases in at least 23 countries.
Omicron shows significant mutations from other strains of the virus, including some that may lead to more 鈥渂reakthrough鈥� infections among those who have already had the disease or were vaccinated against it. The CDC and WHO consider the strain a 鈥渧ariant of concern,鈥� because of Omicron鈥檚 potential to be more contagious than Delta and respond less to vaccines and some treatments. However, WHO epidemiologists are still studying whether Omicron spreads more easily from person to person or causes more-severe cases than other strains.
鈥淭here is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those of other variants,鈥� a WHO spokeswoman told Education Week. 鈥淚nitially reported infections were among university studies鈥攜ounger individuals who tend to have more mild disease鈥攂ut understanding the level of severity of the Omicron [variant] will take days to several weeks.鈥�
In the meantime, both the WHO and CDC advised schools to continue to use existing mitigation strategies鈥攕uch as indoor masking, physical distancing, and improved ventilation鈥攚hile also encouraging students and staff to get vaccinated.
Should schools brace for another pandemic wave?
Probably, experts say, but not necessarily because of Omicron. Just as last winter saw a significant third wave, COVID-19 cases have begun to rise again in some areas, particularly as temperatures drop and more activities move indoors.
The University of Washington鈥檚 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which models potential trajectories for the pandemic, people are already becoming more mobile during the holiday season, and predicted fewer people will wear masks and keep physically distanced over the next several months. The group estimates it would take 95 percent of the United States regularly wearing masks in public鈥攔egardless of vaccination status鈥攖o fully prevent another wave of the pandemic, and if Americans stop wearing masks entirely when they become vaccinated, infection rates would double by the end of January.
ages 12 to 17 now have been fully vaccinated, the CDC reports, but less than 15 percent of children ages 5 to 11 have had at least one dose, and there has been no vaccine yet approved for those under 5. Those coverage rates are nowhere near high enough to provide herd protection for those unable to receive a vaccination, or to prevent individual outbreaks of the pandemic.
A new, (one that has been released through a medical wire but has not yet gone through formal peer review and journal publication) led by researchers at Harvard University鈥檚 Center for Health Decision Science, suggests that as the virus evolves, school and district leaders need to develop plans that allow them to rapidly adjust their masking, distancing, and instructional policies to changes in community infection and vaccination rates. In a school where at least half of students had full immunization, the researchers predicted school leaders could lift masking requirements without increasing secondary school infections as long as the community infection rate stayed below four new cases per day for every 100,000 people, and the school took other mitigation measures, such as improving ventilation and keeping students physically separated. At the moment, however, nearly all U.S. communities remain above that rate.
