In three states long dominated by Democrats, a trio of new Republican governors are testing the limits of their political clout with potentially divisive K-12 initiatives and tough budget proposals that could significantly affect public schools.
All three鈥擟harlie Baker in Massachusetts, Larry Hogan in Maryland, and Bruce Rauner in Illinois鈥攁re among the large class of Republican governors elected last November, but face a particularly strong check on their ambitions from legislatures in their states that Democrats control and have controlled for a long period of time:
鈥� In Massachusetts, Gov. Baker campaigned on a pledge to lift the current cap on charter schools, but it鈥檚 uncertain whether such a bill would actually be sent to his desk by lawmakers. His focus on K-12 could instead end up focusing on education improvement in a group of midsized cities.
鈥� In Maryland, Gov. Hogan also is pushing to put charters on a stronger footing, as well as set up a new school choice program. But he has already run afoul of Democrats and unions over proposed changes to how growth in education spending is calculated.
鈥� And in Illinois, Gov. Rauner has already tried to fulfill his election-season pledge to cut down the power of labor unions in the state by proposing dramatic public-pension overhauls, including one that could shift some burdens to school districts in certain cases.
Political Hurdles
Nationwide, there are now 31 GOP governors鈥攖wo more than before the 2014 election鈥攁nd 18 Democratic governors. (Alaska Gov. Bill Walker is an Independent.)
But Govs. Baker, Hogan, and Rauner are the only Republican freshmen who will have to face down legislatures controlled by the other party.
One state in that group offers an example dating back to the 1990s of legislative action involving education under similarly divided government, according to Michael J. Petrilli, the president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, a think tank in Washington that supports school choice programs.
In 1993, he noted, Massachusetts鈥� Republican Gov. William F. Weld also working with a legislature controlled by Democrats鈥攕igned the Education Reform Act, which altered standards and accountability in the Bay State, while also increasing spending on public schools significantly.
鈥淭here is a history of major education reforms getting done with that kind of lineup,鈥� said Mr. Petrilli. 鈥淭hey should definitely aim high, because it is possible to come to some consensus.鈥�
Massachusetts Battlegrounds
Perhaps the most prominent part of Gov. Baker鈥檚 education platform during his 2014 campaign was lifting the cap on statewide charter schools that is now set at 120. Restraints are also placed on charters鈥� growth related to districts鈥� payments to charters and where they can be open based on an area鈥檚 population. He also picked James Peyser, a charter school proponent who most recently worked at the New69传媒 Venture Fund, to be his education secretary, a cabinet position. (Mitchell D. Chester, the state education commissioner, is appointed by the state school board.)
But last year, Democrats in control of the legislature rejected a bill to lift the statewide cap on charters, and observers say they expect the cap to remain where it is this year as well.
In the meantime, Gov. Baker鈥檚 K-12 focus might be shifting to workforce issues. In remarks at a meeting of the National Governors Association last month, he cited difficulties in overhauling the administrative workforce in the 13,900-student Lawrence district, after it went into state receivership in 2011, as well as the challenges of trying to increase the number of good teachers working in high-poverty schools.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not so much about teaching per se, as much as something to do with the runway that goes into teaching,鈥� Mr. Baker said.
Lawrence is among the state鈥檚 鈥済ateway cities,鈥� a term used by state government and other groups to describe several midsize urban areas including Brockton, New Bedford, and Springfield that have high rates of poverty and unemployment. With sweeping K-12 policy legislation likely not in the cards this year, Gov. Baker may be poised to use those cities as a model of how the state could push changes to public schools and how to connect K-12 improvement to business communities in those areas.
鈥淚 think they鈥檙e going to be very open to innovative and bold strategies that are focused on specific geographic areas and concentrate resources across areas of education and economic development,鈥� said William H. Guenther, the chairman of Mass Insight Education, a Boston-based group that works to improve low-performing schools, referring to Gov. Baker and his administration.
But that strategy, even if it鈥檚 successful, could take time to unfold, especially if the governor emphasizes district-level turnarounds as opposed to emphasizing individual low-performing schools, said James Stergios, the executive director of the Boston-based Pioneer Institute, which supports school choice and virtual education.
鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to make sure you get your ducks in a row and have those conversations at the local level,鈥� Mr. Stergios said. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 just throw things in front of people, unless you want to fail.鈥�
For now, he added, there is 鈥渁 blinking red light, if not red light鈥� for the prospects of a higher cap on charters.
Maryland鈥檚 Mixed Picture
In Maryland, by contrast, regional K-12 issues could become a hindrance for Gov. Hogan.
As part of his efforts to cut overall statewide spending in the next budget, he wants to freeze the inflation-based growth of the state鈥檚 Geographic Cost of Education Index, which provides additional funds to districts where the cost of maintaining public schools is higher than the state average. Mr. Hogan would cut $143 million out of that education funding stream in his fiscal 2016 budget. The governor stressed in his budget that K-12 spending would still be a record $6.1 billion.
"[Gov.] Hogan is just trying to be realistic in terms of the money the state has to pay for different parts of the budget,鈥� said Marta H. Mossburg, a visiting fellow at the Maryland Public Policy Institute, a fiscally conservative think tank in Rockville, Md., that also support charters. 鈥淚 think Hogan was elected to make those kinds of choices.鈥�
Democrats in charge of the Maryland legislature and others have quickly lined up against the plan. The Maryland State Education Association, for example, says on a website it created that the governor鈥檚 plan would cost Baltimore schools $21.8 million in projected state aid, or $8,720 per classroom.
That is not Gov. Hogan鈥檚 only controversial move regarding K-12 spending. What makes his proposed change to the cost index particularly problematic for Delegate Eric Luedtke, a Democrat and public school teacher, is the governor鈥檚 separate proposal to establish tax-credit scholarships for students.
In his scholarship proposal, the governor said in a statement that 鈥減arents need realistic and better alternatives, and children need rigorous and challenging curriculums that prepare them for the jobs of the future.鈥�
But Mr. Luedtke said the plan ultimately is about 鈥渟hifting money from public to private schools.鈥�
Bipartisan Opening
There could be more chance for bipartisan cooperation on charters than on other issues, though the details could make negotiations tricky. The governor wants charters to have access to a bigger range of state funds and be exempt from certification requirements and local collective bargaining agreements.
Mr. Luedtke, meanwhile, said charters that focus more on specific populations could find broad support. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 perfectly reasonable to let charters focus more on high-needs populations, which is difficult to do under our current laws,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here are, I think, things we can do.鈥�
Illinois Showdown Looms
In Illinois, Gov. Rauner鈥檚 early moves on labor issues already have unions harkening back to predictions that he would be the Land of Lincoln鈥檚 version of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican who eliminated collective bargaining for most public-sector unions in 2011.
On Feb. 9, the governor signed an executive order that state agencies can鈥檛 enforce 鈥渇air share鈥� contract provisions, which deduct fees from the agencies鈥� employees鈥� salaries to cover activity by the contracting labor unions. Gov. Rauner justified the move in part by stating in the order that 鈥渟tate employee collective bargaining is an inherently political activity鈥� that contributed to the $111 billion in unfunded pension liabilities, including an estimated $62 billion in such liabilities to the state teachers鈥� retirement system.
Just over a week later, in another push that could weaken local teachers鈥� unions, he signed a separate executive order that set up a task force that will examine how to consolidate and eliminate branches of local governments, including school districts, in order to 鈥渞educe overall costs鈥� and 鈥渋ncrease efficiency.鈥�
In addition to calling for a dramatic shift to a defined-contribution retirement plan for public employees鈥攁 401(k) plan is an example of such a plan鈥攖he governor also wants to require districts to shoulder the pension obligations of pay raises above the rate of inflation that teachers receive just before they retire. Gov. Rauner has called the practice 鈥減ension spiking.鈥�
Unions, including the Illinois Federation of Teachers, have announced plans to sue to stop the fair-share executive order. And they鈥檝e also said his plans for 鈥済utting鈥� the state pension system are unconstitutional. A lawsuit over pension changes that reduce benefits for younger workers, signed into law in 2013 by former Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, is still in court.
On the other hand, Gov. Rauner鈥檚 proposal to boost K-12 funding by $300 million next year could find traction among Democratic lawmakers, who are also mulling a major shift to a new funding formula based on weights for different types of students, such as those from low-income backgrounds.
Education advocates should watch that bill and the budget closely, especially since other major K-12 initiatives are highly unlikely to get traction early in Gov. Rauner鈥檚 tenure, said Robin Steans, the executive director of Advance Illinois, a bipartisan K-12 advocacy group.
鈥淚f those two things [pass], that鈥檚 huge,鈥� Ms. Steans said.
